Expert Systems (Quantitative Applications in the Social by Robert A. Benfer, Edward E. Brent, Louanna Furbee

By Robert A. Benfer, Edward E. Brent, Louanna Furbee

This publication introduces the method of specialist platforms improvement as a version for buying, representing and validating wisdom approximately fairly constrained domain names. Many examples derive from the authors' personal improvement reviews within the social sciences, either with normative and with descriptive modeling platforms. it is going to be an informative creation to professional structures for someone operating in the social sciences.

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Thus, expert systems are a superset of the rules by which most decision trees are created and employed in making choices. Flow Charts Flow charts have many of the advantages of decision trees, but more naturally permit recursion. The disadvantages are that most expert systems will be too complex to display in such a two-dimensional representation. However, a flow chart application with hypertext (described in Chapter 1) capability might be able to represent most expert systems efficiently. Flow charts are useful for visualizing relations among sets of rules.

In medical diagnoses, the cost may be very high. But where the expert system is designed to capture only the most important elements, the heuristic value of a simpler system may be more important than improving prediction a final 10%. 50 51 Selecting a Method for Handling Uncertainty Confidence factors present a problem unique to expert systems management because of their effect within a rule and across rules through the combination of rules that reach a common conclusion. An excellent and compact introduction to this topic is found in Ng and Abramson (1990).

1984). Other heuristics that will make the model more realistic include considerations of water availability, need and availability of fertilizer, and numbers of fields available to the family for cultivation. We will test the sensitivity of the model by simulations in which critical confidence factors are allowed to vary to see how much variation can be permitted before the crop choice is no longer specified correctly. 11 For AI-FORENS, the set of expert systems to help forensic experts estimate sex and age at time of death from the hip bone (os coxae, or innominate bone), we also followed procedures similar to those we used in the Andes, even though we were dealing with fellow Americans, and even though one of us is somewhat of an expert in this area.

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